By Khalid Hashmani

Stephen Cohen said that a group of international scholars that included authors and ambassadors were simply asked to provide their insight in the following two questions:

How did they see Pakistan in the medium-term (5-7 years)? What were key factors that may shape Pakistan’s future?

Their answers became the chapters of the book.

Panel Two – 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM (Moderator: John R. Schmidt)

We have to win them over; we cannot destroy them with drones!

Pamela Constable, Staff Writer for Washington Post remarked that situation in Pakistan had been so fluid that she had to revise her recent books six times in the past few months. She also remarked that she struck by the extra-ordinary commonality of diagnosis, She continued that every contributor to the book seems to agree the bleakness about the future of Pakistan. Constable said that hope is always desirable but at the same time there are some bothersome developments. Media for one had shown extra-ordinary potential for bringing positive changes to Pakistan but it has not been as forward-looking and is paddling the most common denominator such as anti-Americanism and mute criticism of extremist attitudes. Similarly, the “judiciary” and the “Lawyer’s Movement” that had once shown that it would help bring positive changes has been a terrible disappointment as too have been backward looking and unwilling to bring about positive changes. Constable remarked, ” yes, most Pakistanis do not support terrorism, but have never been so anti-American”. Some of reasons for the worsening attitudes – emotional defense of Islamism, confusing messages from their leaders, and rise of growth of radical movement as seen in Punjab University. She concluded by saying “We have to win them over, we cannot destroy them with drones”.

Replying to a question, Constable said that the public opinion in Pakistan is getting more conservative and that will further impact the military. The newly recruited crop of officers is more militant and increasingly they will have more influence on decision-makers.

Army will decide National Security and Allocation of Resources!

Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy focused on the immediate (3-5 years) future of Pakistan. He said that we are seeing a creeping military dictatorship underway right now. It is not going to like Musharraf or Zia eras, but more settled, where decisions would be made by a collective leadership of few military men who will make all critical decisions against what broad population wants. The civilian façade will also go on with positions of President, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and other showcases of a parliamentary form of government. Media will be active and alive as long as they do not seriously criticize military. Those who do will be eliminated. Judiciary will be able to do what they want as long as they don’t challenge military. Army will decide the key decisions on the matters of national security and allocation of resources.

Riedel said that many would say that this has been the case all along any way, however, at least in the last three years, the civilian government did attempt to take some decisions. He saw the current situation where the current civilian government including President is truly scared and intimidated. He said that the “Memogate” is another example of this. It is ironic that the “memo” that was supposed to prevent dictatorship is now being used to facilitate the arrival of military dictatorship. He said he hoped that the person who wrote the memo and wrote about it in the “Financial Times” could live with conscience in what they have done to Pakistan.

Talking about the settled way of military dictatorship in Pakistan, Riedel said it would be a South Asian model of how military rules Algeria. There, the military rules behind curtains and very few people who are key military officers who make decisions. It is not a single person who dictates but rather a collection of few senior officers. He further said that good news is that this in-progress event can still be reversed if Pakistanis want. However, if this is left on its steady drift it is going to be 5th military dictatorship in Pakistan.

Commenting on the War, Riedel said that NATO and the US are fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan. This is not a new phenomenon but has been since 2002. It is just that veils are now taken off. Riedel continued that the assassination of President Rabbani was a key milestone sending the message that they are in no mood to compromise. He said that Pakistan’s absence at the Bonn conference is the message from Pakistan that it is backing Taliban and does not want negotiations. The US/NATO and Pakistan are heading towards a collision. Riedel added that there are some built-in “breaks” but it is to seen if these “breaks” are strong enough to stop rapture.

Continue reading What American Think-Tank thinkers think about how Pakistan will evolve in future? Part 2 →